How Good Will Amazon's Black Friday Deals Be This Year? Here's What Shopping Experts Predict

In case you hadn’t heard, Amazon debuted a slew of refreshed and intriguing new devices at the Amazon Devices Event in September. The company introduced everything souped-up versions of its Echo speaker series to wearables like earbuds — even an Amazon microwave!

But we sure hope you didn't buy anything — at least not yet, while full list prices are in effect. Amazon devices are discounted heavily during major sales events like Amazon Prime Day, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday — and the latter two are just around the corner.

So, as excited as we are at the thought of asking Alexa to make us popcorn, the arrival of new Amazon tech brings up a key question: What kinds of Black Friday deals Amazon will be dropping on its devices this year?

“Traditionally, Amazon is very aggressive with pricing on their own hardware during those highly promotional periods,” said Stephen Baker, technology business analyst at market research firm The NPD Group.

Amazon’s Black Friday deals are good for consumers, but they’re also a big part of the company’s broader business strategy, says Adam Wright, senior research analyst covering smart home at International Data Corporation. “Amazon is happy to forgo the revenue on the device itself in favor of driving increased revenues from the related services,” he says. “The smart home market is one in which the margins on the devices/hardware is falling so rapidly that the devices are largely relegated to being mere vehicles for the delivery of services.”

[UPDATE: On November 18, Amazon announced more details regarding Black Friday deals, including sale prices on several Amazon devices. We have updated this story with Amazon's Black Friday deal prices that are available, and will continue updating the story as more details are released. Sale prices go into effect starting on Friday, November 22.]

Here’s what experts say that means for Black Friday deals on some popular Amazon devices.

Ring Video Doorbell: $99.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Up to 60% off

“Discounts in 2018 in the smart home space were as deep as 60% in late November and our data is showing these types of discounts again for the 2019 holiday shopping season,” predicts Andrew Scarbrough, co-founder and COO of deals site PriceWaiter.com. “Expect smart speakers, video doorbells and smart security systems to lead the way as manufacturers offer attractive discounts to introduce people to their Smart Home systems.”

Fire 7 Tablet: $49.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: 40% off

UPDATE: Actual Black Friday price: $29.99

“The Amazon Fire Tablet will be priced again as it was in 2018 at $29.99,” predicts David Dritsas, electronics retail expert for Brad’s Deals. There are several versions of the Fire currently available. The Fire 7 is the cheapest, and at the upper end, the 32G Fire HD 10 costs $149.99.

Fire TV Cube: $119.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: 25% off

UPDATE: Actual Black Friday price: $89.99

“The new Fire TV Cube will likely see discounting of up to 25%,” Wright says.

Echo Dot: $49.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Up to 75% off

UPDATE: Actual Black Friday price: $22

Amazon’s cheapest smart speaker is where shoppers will see the deepest discounts, Scarbrough says. “We expect the Echo Dot to lead the way as far as largest percentage discount. Discounts could be as deep as 75% off retail,” he predicts.

“With a brand new Echo Dot with a clock display on the market — assuming Amazon keeps the older version around for the holiday shopping season — we should see that older version fall dramatically in price,” says Kristin McGrath, editor and shopping expert at BlackFriday.com.

Echo, 3rd Gen: $99.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Up to 50% off

The flagship Echo speaker just got an upgrade, McGrath notes, but it’s still likely to be a bargain. “Even if it doesn’t go as low as the $49.99 Prime Day 2019 price, expect it to go down to the previous Black Friday’s price of $69,” she says.

“The new Echo speaker will likely be discounted by about 33% and possibly more,” Wright predicts.

Amazon also is expanding its Echo universe even further on both the low and high end with the sophisticated Echo Studio and teeny, wall plug-mounted Echo Flex, (both of which go on sale next month). “Even though these products are new, Amazon has a pattern of offering headline-making discounts on a few key products each year to undercut the competition and get consumers excited,” McGrath says.

Echo Show 8: $129.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Up to 40% off

At the Amazon Devices Event, the company debuted a new version of its Echo Show speaker, which features a screen. With so many different models of Echo speakers, Wright suggests even newer products could get discounted. “We will probably see the new Echo Show 8 discounted by up to 40%, even though it’s a new device,” he says. Shoppers can also expect lots of bundling, like this current combo of the Echo Show 8 and older Echo Show 5 for $169.98.

Echo Buds: $129.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Up to 50% off

Last year at this time, Apple's AirPods were basically the only game in town. That's no longer the case, as Amazon's new ear buds officially go on sale as of October 30.

The earbud competition could mean big AirPod deals as well as discounts on Amazon's new offering. “We predict Echo Buds to also see a deep discount in an attempt to snag some of the remaining market from the higher-end competitor, Apple AirPods,” Scarbrough says.

Eero Mesh Wi-Fi Router/Extender: $99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Modest Discount

This will be Amazon’s first holiday season selling these Wi-Fi routers and extenders since acquiring the company earlier this year. “Keep an eye on the new Eero Wi-Fi system,” Scarbrough advises. “We predict modest discounts off of their pre-order pricing.”

Amazon Smart Oven: $249.99

Black Friday Deal Prediction: Wait and See

Amazon debuted this combination microwave, convection oven, air fryer and warmer, gambling that shoppers will (ahem) warm to the idea that Alexa can cook your food and let you know when it’s ready, and they're throwing in an Echo Dot for free.

Whether or not it will be discounted further at this point is hard to tell, McGrath says. “It’s hard to give a price point at this time," she says. "What we know for sure is that Amazon likes to surprise us. We're thinking they will drop prices on some of the new items for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but it all comes down to demand."

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